From early 2025 to early September 2026, the yield on 30-year US Treasury bonds rose by approximately 55 basis points, a smaller increase than that of Japan, Germany, France, the UK, and Italy. Recently, the yields on long-term bonds in Japan, Germany, the UK, and France have all risen to multi-decade highs, indicating that this round of selling is not simply driven by a market "fleeing US Treasuries," but rather by a global bond market reassessing inflation, fiscal supply, and maturity risks.
The OECD projects that member countries' sovereign financing will reach approximately $18 trillion in 2026, of which approximately $14 trillion will be used to repay and refinance maturing debt. Increased long-term bond supply, weakened demand for traditional allocations, and investors' demands for higher term premiums have collectively pushed up long-term financing costs for major economies. However, this "global sell-off" cannot absolve the US of fiscal pressure. OECD data shows that the US already accounts for approximately 70% of member countries' refinancing needs. Therefore, the current situation is closer to a synchronized global reassessment of sovereign debt than a credit crisis unique to the US; however, the massive scale of US bond issuance and refinancing may still make it a significant source of pressure on global long-term interest rates.
