Matt Mali, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak+Co., said that US Treasury yields face a key resistance level at 4.8%, and a sustained break above this level could have a “substantial impact” on other asset classes. He remains concerned about the US Treasury market because the widening fiscal deficit, massive debt issuance, and corporate borrowing pressures continue to weigh on long-term yields, and the Treasury’s verbal intervention has so far failed to bring yields down as expected (at least for now). A sustained break above 4.8% for the 10-year Treasury yield (the high reached in January 2025) would be particularly worrying, as it could begin to trigger broader problems in the market and indicate that fiscal concerns are outweighing policymakers’ efforts to influence borrowing costs. Chen Yanting, general manager of Noah ARK Hong Kong, said that a sustained break above 4.8% could have far-reaching consequences beyond the bond market. A disorderly rise in long-term US Treasury yields could trigger a repricing of assets reliant on long-term cash flows, including ultra-long-duration bonds, high-valuation growth stocks, commercial real estate, and some private equity assets. As a “fiscal-led” environment drives investors to demand greater risk compensation for holding long-term debt, structural pressures are building in US Treasuries. It tends to use gold and hard currencies as structural hedging tools, underweight ultra-long-duration US Treasuries, while maintaining allocations to high-quality stocks, physical assets, and AI-related physical infrastructure (such as electricity, power grids, energy storage, and data centers).
