GF Securities says securities-sector activity is improving while profitability
is increasingly concentrated among top firms. Forty-two listed brokerages
reported combined operating revenue of 364.0 bln yuan in H1 2026, up 44.5% YoY,
and net profit attributable to shareholders of 154.7 bln yuan, up 49.3% YoY. Q2
net profit alone was 94.0 bln yuan, up 82% YoY and 55% QoQ; quarterly credit
impairment jumped 662% YoY to 4.3 bln yuan. By business line in H1, investment
gains (incl. fair value) +48% YoY, brokerage +54%, net interest +52%, investment
banking +24%, and asset-management net income +24%. Market turnover rose while
commission rates continued to fall; product scale and mix improved and buy-side
advisory accelerated transformation. Brokerage revenues for the 42 firms totaled
98.4 bln yuan, +54% YoY. New public fund issuance rose 27% YoY; 15 fund houses
reported combined net profit of 11.9 bln yuan, +35% YoY. Private fund filings in
the first seven months reached 709.4 bln yuan, +67% YoY. Asset-management
revenue for the 42 firms was 27.3 bln yuan, +24% YoY, with clear dispersion in
growth rates. Investment view: sector is undervalued and underweight positions
retain defensive qualities with upside; corporate earnings recovery underpins a
gradual market rebound, internationalization offers a second growth vector, and
easing industry policy could provide catalysts. GF notes Q3 may see market
volatility and wider broker profit dispersion; greater exposure to
tech-innovation increases earnings upside potential.
