JP Morgan’s Geopolitical Center says market urgency has eased as more crude—with
U.S. assistance—transits the Strait of Hormuz, temporarily capping oil prices.
Washington believes it can wait for Iranian concessions because Iranian oil
exports are near zero, the rial has depreciated roughly 50% vs USD since
January, and inflation is near 90%, leaving Iran more pressured to return to
talks. JP Morgan assigns a 55% probability to a mediated, face‑saving narrow
agreement akin to prior memoranda, noting Iran and Oman are close to a joint
management mechanism for the Strait; it assigns a 45% probability the U.S.
delays until mid-November elections to press for tougher terms, in which case
Iran could resume missile and drone attacks on the Strait of Hormuz and regional
U.S. bases to regain leverage.
