In 2026, the regional Fed presidents with voting rights will be Hammark, Paulson, Kashkari, and Logan. Bostic, Goolsby, and Daly are all non-voting members this year and will not take office until 2027. Even so, the lineup remains hawkish: three members advocated for a rate hike at the July meeting, and Warsh subsequently opened the window for a September rate hike. The market has already priced in two rate hikes before March next year.
The dovish camp hasn't disappeared either. Waller clearly stated that if inflation continues to decline, he will support keeping interest rates unchanged; in a Reuters poll, 70% of economists expect no rate hike in September, and 56% expect rates to remain unchanged throughout the year.
However, a rate hike has moved from a tail risk to a realistic option, but it is not yet a "matter of time." Compared to the multiple unanimous votes for large rate hikes in 2022, the current dovish lineup is not the weakest in recent years.
