Morgan Stanley believes that while the semiconductor industry's fundamentals remain supported, four risks should be noted before the end of the year:
1. The expansion of AI data centers may fall short of market expectations, due to factors including grid connection delays and local concerns about electricity costs, environmental protection, and quality of life;
2. The macroeconomic environment may suppress market sentiment, with the US 30-year Treasury yield rising to its highest level since 2007 and oil prices strengthening again. Investors are also watching Nvidia's "cyclical" investments in multiple companies across the AI supply chain;
3. Market focus may shift from large-scale model revenue growth to profitability, with a key observation of whether declining token prices and efficiency improvements can support a sufficiently high return on invested capital;
4. If the 800V data center power supply architecture is delayed, suppliers relying on 400V to 800V upgrades to increase the value per unit, especially GaN manufacturers, may face growth pressure. (The above views are from a Morgan Stanley report dated September 8th.)
