Sultan Barakat said Iran appeared to avoid turning the Red Sea into a major
front in the first six months of the war, preferring Saudi Arabia and Egypt
remain outside a US-led military coalition. Tehran likely initially urged the
Houthis not to provoke Saudi Arabia, but Saudi strikes on Sanaa international
airport in July altered calculations. Iran may not seek direct Saudi–Houthi
confrontation, yet once the Houthis respond Tehran is unlikely to demand
continued passivity without undermining its alliance credibility. Escalation can
align with Iranian interests but does not imply Tehran ordered Houthi attacks.
With US fuel prices and inflation rising, the Trump administration is watching
Yemen closely; a sustained Red Sea threat could prompt Saudi Arabia and Egypt to
move closer to Washington and enable informal coordination with Israel and
European naval forces. By threatening the Bab al‑Mandeb strait, the Houthis may
therefore produce results contrary to Iran’s initial intent.
