Sultan Barakat said Iran appeared to avoid turning the Red Sea into a major front in the first six months of the war, preferring Saudi Arabia and Egypt remain outside a US-led military coalition. Tehran likely initially urged the Houthis not to provoke Saudi Arabia, but Saudi strikes on Sanaa international airport in July altered calculations. Iran may not seek direct Saudi–Houthi confrontation, yet once the Houthis respond Tehran is unlikely to demand continued passivity without undermining its

Sultan Barakat said Iran appeared to avoid turning the Red Sea into a major front in the first six months of the war, preferring Saudi Arabia and Egypt remain outside a US-led military coalition. Tehran likely initially urged the Houthis not to provoke Saudi Arabia, but Saudi strikes on Sanaa international airport in July altered calculations. Iran may not seek direct Saudi–Houthi confrontation, yet once the Houthis respond Tehran is unlikely to demand continued passivity without undermining its alliance credibility. Escalation can align with Iranian interests but does not imply Tehran ordered Houthi attacks. With US fuel prices and inflation rising, the Trump administration is watching Yemen closely; a sustained Red Sea threat could prompt Saudi Arabia and Egypt to move closer to Washington and enable informal coordination with Israel and European naval forces. By threatening the Bab al‑Mandeb strait, the Houthis may therefore produce results contrary to Iran’s initial intent.