Bernstein's US Communications Infrastructure Research team estimates that the nominal development pipeline for US data centers reaches 488GW, of which approximately 170GW is highly credible. Of the existing pipeline, 36% is located in remote Tier 4 markets, and another 34% is located in Tier 3 markets such as West Texas. This combined 70% of capacity is primarily geared towards model training or latency-insensitive inference tasks.
If cutting-edge model training slows down, new computing power demand will increasingly shift towards inference. This means that data center valuations may further diverge, with the market focusing more on capacity location, network connectivity, and corresponding workloads. Of the existing US capacity of EQIX, DLR, and CSQR, 95%, 92%, and 94%, respectively, are located in Tier 1 and Tier 2 markets; new projects in remote areas that have not yet been leased face higher absorption risks.
