Samsung's Q3 profits are expected to be dragged down by the appreciation of the Korean won, prompting JPMorgan to lower its short-term earnings forecast. However, the memory business, particularly HBM, remains in a strong improvement cycle, thus maintaining an "Overweight" rating and a target price of 400,000 won for Samsung Electronics.
Samsung's HBM market share is projected to increase from 20% in 2025 to 39% in 2027, with both HBM prices and sales share rising simultaneously. Slower growth in traditional DRAM and NAND supply will also help maintain high profit margins.
The key variables for further short-term share price recovery are the implementation of HBM and shareholder return policies. For Samsung to gain greater fundamental recognition, it still needs to demonstrate its ability to re-establish a clearer technological lead. Going forward, attention should be paid to further disclosures of long-term supply agreements (LTAs), updates to shareholder return policies, progress on AI and data center investment projects, and updates to next-generation server platform storage specifications. (JPMorgan Report, September 18)
