Analysts say that given CATL's advantages in brand recognition and technology, its dominant position in the Chinese electric vehicle market is unlikely to decline significantly in the coming year. Due to market concerns about a potential loss of market share, CATL's Shenzhen-listed shares have fallen 25% since mid-August and are down 36% from their all-time high in early May. CABIA data shows that in August, CATL continued to lead the Chinese electric vehicle battery market with a market share exceeding 41%; BYD ranked second with 21%, followed by Zhongchuang Innovation Aviation at 6.51%, EVE Energy at 5.95%, and Guoxuan High-Tech at 5.87%.
Zhang Yu, Managing Director of Shanghai-based consulting firm Automotive Foresight, said, "This rare profitability gap between battery companies and automakers has prompted automakers to begin supporting smaller battery manufacturers." Zhang Yu stated, "But it will take some time—say, a year or two—for us to see if this trend will really develop as automakers plan." Zhang Yu pointed out that CATL's competitors need to demonstrate strength in product technology and quality, win consumer recognition, and maintain a low-price strategy. Otherwise, he added, CATL will largely maintain its existing market share.
Wu Lixian, international strategist at Everbright Securities, stated,
He believes CATL's stock is oversold because automakers' supply chain diversification strategies have not yet resulted in a loss of market share or profitability for CATL. Wu also expects CATL's market share to remain stable in the foreseeable future, as the electric vehicle battery industry has high barriers to entry in terms of capital investment, technology investment, and talent accumulation.
Yang Jing, Director of Corporate Ratings for Asia Pacific at Fitch Ratings, stated,
"Given CATL's diversified customer base, technological advantages, and strong position in the faster-growing overseas electric vehicle battery and energy storage system markets, the supply chain diversification efforts of some Chinese automakers are unlikely to threaten CATL's global leadership."
