Short-term gas prices remain strong: Goldman Sachs believes that if Persian Gulf LNG exports fail to recover this winter, European TTF natural gas prices could rise to €105/MWh, and Asian JKM could reach $35/MMBtu.
Europe is absorbing more US LNG: Currently, more readily available US LNG shipments are going to Europe, but Asian buyers have already resumed purchases; if Asia intensifies its scramble, Europe and Asia may drive up prices against each other.
High prices will first suppress Asian industrial demand: Goldman Sachs believes that if gas prices continue to rise, Asian plants may be the first to reduce gas consumption, with India's price of around $30/MMBtu potentially becoming a significant threshold for reduced volume.
Long-term trends are the opposite of short-term trends: Current supply tightness is pushing up prices, but with more US LNG projects coming online, Goldman Sachs still expects the global LNG market to shift towards oversupply, putting downward pressure on gas prices in the long term.
