Overall demand for baijiu (Chinese liquor) remains cautious, and the divergence between brands, regions, and consumption scenarios is widening. Anhui is performing better than last year, Henan is roughly stable, while Jiangsu, Shandong, and Sichuan still face pressure. Demand for banquets is significantly more resilient than demand for business and gift-giving. Moutai stands out among major brands, with its Feitian (Flying Fairy) wholesale price continuing to rise and channel inventory very low. Wuliangye is actively reducing its inventory, while Luzhou Laojiao and some mid-to-high-end brands face more significant pressure.
This year, the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays are separate, making the second round of restocking after the Mid-Autumn Festival a crucial observation window. Goldman Sachs believes that whether the wholesale prices of Feitian Moutai and Wuliangye can remain stable on September 28-29 will be a key indicator of restocking intentions for the National Day holiday. (See the chart below for forecasts of different baijiu stocks, Goldman Sachs report, September 18)
