China's National Climate Center said a typically strong El Niño creates
cross-season, lagged climate disturbances that often peak in the following year
and is not the sole driver of China's climate. In El Niño decay years, an
anomalously strong western Pacific subtropical high tends to push warm, moist
air into China. Coupled with ongoing global warming and a strengthened northern
rain belt, summers may see heavier, longer-duration rainfall and more intense
heatwaves. The center advised monitoring this winter's intermittent severe cold
snaps for impacts on northern heating demand and next summer's widespread heat
for higher air-conditioning loads and peak power demand. El Niño's
basin-specific effects can produce spatial mismatches in river inflows, abnormal
load-peak volatility and added pressure on reservoir dispatch.
