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Traders have reduced their bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike in October. Following Fed Chair Williams' statement that he was "in no hurry to act," the market now expects only one more rate hike by the end of the year.

2026-09-30

Traders have reduced their bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike in October. Following Fed Chair Williams' statement that he was "in no hurry to act," the market now expects only one more rate hike by the end of the year.

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2026-09-29

U.S. 1-year Treasury auction through Sept. 29: bid-cover ratio 3.07, prior 3.61.

U.S. 1-year Treasury auction through Sept. 29: bid-cover ratio 3.07, prior 3.61.
2026-09-29

All nine forecasters — Oxford Economics, Standard Chartered, Westpac, the Reuters survey, UBS, TD Securities, ANZ, ING and Commonwealth Bank — expect a 25bp Reserve Bank of Australia hike in September. Views on November diverge: UBS and ANZ expect an

All nine forecasters — Oxford Economics, Standard Chartered, Westpac, the Reuters survey, UBS, TD Securities, ANZ, ING and Commonwealth Bank — expect a 25bp Reserve Bank of Australia hike in September. Views on November diverge: UBS and ANZ expect another 25bp (UBS ties this to Q3 inflation surprising to the upside); Commonwealth Bank says September will pass unanimously with hawkish wording and that a Q3 trimmed‑mean inflation print ≥1% q/q could trigger a further hike; TD Securities and the Reuters survey see the cycle nearing its end and TD sees no urgent case for Nov/Dec moves; Westpac expects a split vote reflecting differing views on supply capacity and labor‑market slack. Drivers cited across forecasters are persistent inflation, a still‑tight labor market, higher oil prices and AI‑related demand, plus resilient growth, reinforcing upside policy risk.
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