Term premium has jumped to levels not seen in over a decade, spurring a fresh
round of U.S. Treasury selling and driving yields to 24-year highs. Frank
Rebinski, head of macro strategy at Aegon Asset Management, said multiple
measures of the term premium are rising and the move looks persistent. Barclays
research led by Demi Hu points to macro uncertainty, a breakdown in traditional
stock–bond correlation, heavier bond supply and fiscal-policy worries as key
drivers, with recent gains likely reflecting a mix of those factors. Capital
Economics chief economist Neil Shearing added the change could also reflect
technicals such as end‑month portfolio rebalancing or spillovers from European
concerns about France’s debt burden.