I. Escalating Houthi Threat, Saudi Arabia Faces Multiple Pressures
1. Following the Houthi attack on Riyadh airport, Saudi Arabia faces multiple pressures: restoring its military deterrence, protecting critical infrastructure, and preventing escalation of the conflict.
2. After years of development, the Houthis have acquired the capability to conduct long-range strikes using ballistic missiles and drones. With Iranian support, their attack methods have become more complex.
3. Although Saudi Arabia possesses advanced air defense systems, its vast territory and dispersed infrastructure mean it still faces the risk of continued low-cost drone attacks.
II. Military Options and Costs
1. Maintaining Air Support: Avoiding Ground Intervention, but with Limited Effectiveness
① Response: Supporting the Yemeni government forces and anti-Houthi factions with air power, while allowing the Yemeni ground forces to advance, Saudi Arabia avoids large-scale deployment of its own troops. This is the approach Saudi Arabia has already taken, but whether it will continue to maintain this restraint after the recent attack remains uncertain.
② Costs and Risks: 1) The Houthis previously held their positions despite the Saudi-backed offensive; air support may not be able to turn the tide of the battle. The effectiveness of the operation depends on the ground performance of the Yemeni government forces. 2) Even with continued air support, it may not be effective in preventing Houthi attacks on Saudi airports and other critical infrastructure, making it difficult to fundamentally eliminate the security threat facing Saudi Arabia.
2. Deploying Ground Troops: Greater Pressure, but High Cost
① Response Method: No longer limited to air support, but with Saudi forces directly penetrating Yemen to increase military pressure on the Houthis.
② Costs and Risks: 1) Potential for a costly and protracted ground war of attrition. 2) Yemen's rugged and complex terrain may make it difficult for military operations to achieve decisive results quickly. 3) Saudi Arabia's image as a stable, investment-friendly, and globally tourism-developing nation may be damaged, potentially leading to long-term military and economic burdens.
3. Seeking US Involvement: Higher Efficiency, but Greater Uncertainty
① Response Method: Seeking US involvement to upgrade from intelligence support to direct air strikes against the Houthis. US aircraft can respond to US satellite intelligence more quickly, and direct US participation in airstrikes will improve strike efficiency.
② Costs and Risks: 1) Uncertainty remains regarding whether the US will directly intervene. The US has not previously supported airstrikes against the Houthis, only providing intelligence support. Trump's latest statement that the US "might" join the strike does not represent a decision to enter the war. 2) Even if the US ultimately decides to intervene directly, it could expand the scope of the conflict and further escalate the situation.
4. Expanding International Cooperation: Sharing Pressure, but with Varying Levels
① Response Methods: Seek support from countries such as France, the UK, and Pakistan, and seek assistance from other countries such as Turkey and Syria, thereby sharing Saudi Arabia's military and security pressure and expanding its ability to contain the Houthis.
② Costs and Risks: 1) The specific forms and levels of support from various countries vary, and do not equate to a willingness to directly participate in the war. 2) Whether international support can translate into effective military results still depends on the ground situation and intelligence coordination. 3) External support alone may not be enough to prevent the Houthis from using low-cost drones to attack key facilities across Saudi Arabia's vast territory.
