Ukraine is entering the 2026-2027 winter with approximately 12-15 gigawatts of available generating capacity, far below the peak winter demand of 18-19 gigawatts, a gap widening due to Russia's winter energy offensive launched at the end of September.
According to Ukrainian officials and grid operator Ukrenergo, Russian forces launched nearly 190 drones and multiple missiles at Kyiv energy facilities on September 29-30, followed by 285 sorties in a single day. The Trypillya thermal power plant, Kyiv hydroelectric power station, and several substations were damaged, causing power outages in parts of Kyiv for up to eight hours and disrupting the metro.
Pre-war Ukraine had an installed capacity of 56.2 gigawatts. Currently, nuclear, thermal, and hydroelectric power are largely shut down, and six units at the occupied Zaporizhia nuclear power plant are in a state of cold shutdown. Ukraine accuses Russia of planning a three-phase strike on 15 gigawatts of generating capacity, but the authenticity of this document has not been independently verified.
To make up for the shortfall, Ukraine is accelerating the repair of damaged facilities, developing distributed generation, and expanding its electricity imports from the EU, currently capped at approximately 2.45 gigawatts, with plans to further increase this figure starting in December. Analysts warn that several rounds of intensive strikes could wipe out months of repairs, and the power grid battle this winter will depend on whether Russian strikes or Ukrainian repairs proceed faster.
