"The risk of escalation of military conflict is rising," said Madison Cartwright, senior geoeconomic analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, in a research report. According to data from ship tracking company Kpler, total Middle Eastern oil exports in September were nearing pre-war levels. Cartwright stated that this could mean the market has at least 10 to 15 weeks of oil and refined product supply before shortages begin in some areas, higher than his previous estimate of 5 to 10 weeks.
This eases pressure on the US to act quickly and weakens Iran's leverage. However, Cartwright noted that it is unclear whether the higher oil export volumes are sustainable. Iran has responded by escalating attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and Middle Eastern oil exports have declined significantly in the past week. He stated, "As long as the war remains unresolved, the risk of future supply disruptions will persist."
Furthermore, the price difference between crude oil and diesel has widened since the outbreak of the war. Shipping costs have also increased. The cost of transporting oil from the Persian Gulf to Asia using the largest tankers has jumped from $7 per barrel before the war to $36 per barrel.
