Nomura's report indicates that El Niño could lead to a decline in rice production in India, Thailand, and Vietnam. As a major rice importer, the Philippines faces the greatest risk.
Asian rice export prices are rising. In October, the year-on-year export prices of white rice with a 5% broken rice content in Thailand and Vietnam surged to 36.9% and 11.4%, respectively, compared to year-on-year declines of 14.6% and 21.6% in January. The price of long-grain white rice with a 25% broken rice content in India has also increased, but the increase is smaller.
On the supply side, below-normal rainfall has resulted in a 3.5% year-on-year decrease in the summer rice planting area in India. With El Niño potentially intensifying into the first quarter of 2027, drought conditions could make it difficult for Thailand to replenish its reservoirs, thus limiting second-season rice production. Meanwhile, the Philippines has increased rice imports to compensate for domestic supply gaps, driving a recovery in demand.
Rice is a staple food for Asian residents, and its price trends warrant close monitoring. In the 2025/26 season, only 11.3% of global rice production will enter the international trade market. Therefore, a domestic supply shortage in one country could have a ripple effect across the entire region.
The Philippines faces the greatest risk because rice has the highest weighting in its Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket at 8.9%; furthermore, the Philippines is Asia's largest net importer of rice.
