Brian Levitt, Chief Global Market Strategist at Invesco, wrote on October 26 that the recent decline in US Treasury yields, coupled with their further rise during periods of tension in the Middle East, indicates that their traditional safe-haven appeal has not significantly weakened. Meanwhile, the credit market for the AI industry is strengthening risk screening: companies with high leverage, uncertain cash flow, and large capital requirements are facing stricter scrutiny; borrowing costs for some AI cloud service providers are rising, and credit default swap spreads are widening. However, this does not necessarily mean that the AI investment boom is crumbling. Invesco points out that Anthropic's commercialization continues to advance, OpenAI's enterprise business is growing, and Meta has already reflected AI application benefits in advertising and recommendation systems; AI usage, revenue, and enterprise adoption rates are rising, while inference costs continue to decline. However, whether the massive investments in data centers and computing power will yield sufficient returns remains uncertain. The Middle East conflict and rising oil prices may also push up short-term inflation and drag down economic growth. Invesco believes that the current market is more about distinguishing between high-quality assets and high-risk companies than about completely denying the growth prospects of AI.
