A report by Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (SMBC) states that the different outcomes of the November 3rd US midterm elections will have a limited impact on the interest rate market. However, if the Democrats control both the House and Senate, they may push up US Treasury yields slightly by increasing healthcare spending. The report estimates that if the Democratic healthcare policies are fully implemented, spending could increase by $1.5 trillion over the next 10 years; the cost of restoring Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies would be approximately $80 billion over three years and $350 billion over ten years. If Congress is divided between the two parties, major tax and spending adjustments are expected to be difficult to advance, and tariff policies are unlikely to be directly overturned by Congress. Another risk worth noting is AI data centers: local governments may tighten construction restrictions or cancel preferential tax policies, slowing down some AI investment, but SMBC believes that the impact on overall economic growth and the Federal Reserve's policy path may be limited. The report also predicts that the US Treasury is unlikely to reach the debt ceiling before the fall of 2027, and related negotiations may be postponed until early 2028.
