China's next domestic refined-fuel price window opens at 24:00 on Oct 29; the
pricing cycle runs from 24:00 on Oct 15 to 24:00 on Oct 29. Several markets
analysts expect an upward adjustment, citing sustained Middle East tensions —
US‑Iran standoff and Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia — that bolster crude risk
premia. Brent has remained above $100/bbl, keeping international crude high; the
domestic crude-change rate for this cycle is increasingly positive, implying a
higher probability and larger magnitude of a fuel-price increase. Year-to-date
China has had 20 adjustments (13 up, 5 down, 2 neutral); a rise in this round
would make 2026’s tally 14 up, 5 down, 2 neutral.
