Based on historical price data from nine US midterm elections since 1990, the S&P 500 index has seen fluctuations of less than 1% between the close of trading on election day and the close of trading the following day in six instances, indicating generally mild volatility. The VIX index also tends to decline after the election, largely consistent with the current expectation of moderate volatility implied in the options market. However, there are notable exceptions: after the 2018 midterm election, the S&P 500 rose 2.1% the following day; in 2022, it fell 2.1%. Furthermore, it fell 1.8% in 1990. However, the sample size of these nine elections is limited, and the macroeconomic and policy environments of each election are different. This approach should only be used as a reference, and the actual market trend remains to be seen.
