[From "Simultaneous Rise in Volume and Price" to "Continuous Decline in Spot Prices": The Market Begins to Price AI Investment Returns] Following the US midterm elections, concerns about a contraction in AI data center investment intensified, leading to a two-day consecutive decline in general-purpose DRAM spot prices. This was followed by the largest single-day drop in US semiconductor stocks in over six years, and a sharp drop in the South Korean stock market, raising concerns that the storage boom, propped up by price increases, was coming to an end—the "AI peak theory" resurfaced. TrendForce data shows that on the 5th, general-purpose DRAM spot prices across the Asian market fell. The market is sensitive to spot prices because this round of storage boom was built on price increases. According to Counterpoint Research, global DRAM market sales revenue increased by 369% year-on-year in the third quarter, but shipment growth was only 4%. General-purpose DRAM sales revenue growth was faster than HBM—once prices for DDR5 and other components begin to fall, storage manufacturers' operating profit margins will immediately be shaken. Industry experts believe that until next year, volume and price changes will be largely locked in by contracts, with limited impact on performance; however, if the spot market remains weak, the situation will change. Spot prices are considered a leading indicator of contract prices; historically, during storage downturns, there are many precedents where spot prices fall first, followed by contract prices a few months later. With DRAM spot prices continuing to fall and the gap between them and contract prices narrowing, customers have more room to demand price reductions or postpone purchases. Memory industry insiders also acknowledge that it's too early to judge this as a short-term fluctuation, but if the decline develops into a long-term trend, it will indeed have an impact.
