Over the past two weeks, the number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz has surged by nearly 400%, suggesting Iran is losing control of this crucial waterway – with more and more vessels using the US-backed route. Data from the UK's Office for Maritime Trade Operations shows that nearly 200 ships passed through the strait last week, up from 150 the previous week and 40 two weeks ago. This increase brings the total throughput of the channel back to about 20% of pre-war levels. Data from maritime news agency Kpler shows that over 80% of liquid cargo transported through the Strait of Hormuz in the past two weeks has either chosen the Oman route – a US-backed route approved by the UN International Maritime Organization but rejected by Iran – or entered a "dark state," likely also via this route. "Iran appears to have at least partially lost control of the strait," said Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler. "The Oman route is absolutely the most logical option," added Dan Pickering, founder of Pickering Energy Partners, noting that it allows ships to avoid paying tolls to Tehran.
Over the past seven days, 103 ships entered the Strait of Hormuz and 89 exited, a 27% increase from 76 entering and 75 exiting a week ago. This change is even more pronounced compared to two weeks ago, when only 18 ships entered and 21 exited. Most of the ships transiting the strait fly the flags of US allies Panama and Liberia, although the flags only indicate the ship's place of registration, not the location of the shipowner's company. About half of the ships are oil tankers, with the remainder being dry cargo ships. In the past week, five ships were attacked by Iranian artillery fire, resulting in two casualties. These ships were reportedly damaged but not sunk. Since May, the US has been quietly escorting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, employing a "shadow fleet" strategy involving radar shutdown and covert passage, sailing close to the coast of Oman to avoid detection.
