President Trump urged new Fed chair Kevin Warsh to remain independent, but markets expect Warsh's first policy meeting to hold rates. Comerica Bank chief U.S. economist Bill Adams says the Fed would likely need a fresh negative labour‑market shock—for example a deterioration in Middle East hostilities or material AI‑driven job losses—to justify cutting rates. Strong payroll gains over the past three months and Iran‑related upside to inflation have left little room for easing, and traders have sh

President Trump urged new Fed chair Kevin Warsh to remain independent, but markets expect Warsh's first policy meeting to hold rates. Comerica Bank chief U.S. economist Bill Adams says the Fed would likely need a fresh negative labour‑market shock—for example a deterioration in Middle East hostilities or material AI‑driven job losses—to justify cutting rates. Strong payroll gains over the past three months and Iran‑related upside to inflation have left little room for easing, and traders have shifted pricing from cuts toward possible hikes later this year or in early 2027.