President Trump urged new Fed chair Kevin Warsh to remain independent, but markets expect Warsh's first policy meeting to hold rates. Comerica Bank chief U.S. economist Bill Adams says the Fed would likely need a fresh negative labour‑market shock—for example a deterioration in Middle East hostilities or material AI‑driven job losses—to justify cutting rates. Strong payroll gains over the past three months and Iran‑related upside to inflation have left little room for easing, and traders have sh

Commerzbank expects Brent crude to remain around $85/bbl through year-end, commodity research head Thu Lan Nguyen said. She warned US‑Iran talks on a new nuclear deal are likely to be bumpy and the bank is cautious about forecasts of oil falling well below pre‑war levels. Even if the Strait of Hormuz fully and sustainably reopens, shipping and Gulf energy exports will take substantial time to normalize. Commerzbank added that rapid inventory rebuilding could lift near‑term demand and that countries most affected by disruption may seek higher strategic stocks, amplifying restocking demand.

China A-shares industrial metals sector slipped intraday; Shengda Resources was locked at the daily down-limit, while Xin Weiling, Tianshan Aluminium, Mingtai Aluminium, Jin Chengxin and Aluminum Corp of China (Chalco) also fell.