President Trump urged new Fed chair Kevin Warsh to remain independent, but
markets expect Warsh's first policy meeting to hold rates. Comerica Bank chief
U.S. economist Bill Adams says the Fed would likely need a fresh negative
labor‑market shock—for example a deterioration in Middle East hostilities or
material AI‑driven job losses—to justify cutting rates. Strong payroll gains
over the past three months and Iran‑related upside to inflation have left little
room for easing, and traders have shifted pricing from cuts toward possible
Hikes later this year or in early 2027.
