航运情报公司Kpler数据显示，自伊朗冲突爆发以来，中东地区的精炼油供应减少了约400万桶/天。炼油厂受损以及出口限制导致中东地区各国的复苏情况参差不齐。沙特阿拉伯、科威特和巴林不仅遭受了严重的物理破坏，还面临着巨大的生产损失。而阿联酋和伊朗则更受产品运输方面的限制。卡塔尔由于“Pearl GTL”设施受损，需要更长的时间来恢复生产。阿曼则情况有所不同：由于位于霍尔木兹海峡之外，阿曼的生产能力基本保持正常水平。

Frank Flett, head of macro strategy at Citadel Securities, says the risk-reward has shifted toward a rally in long-dated U.S. Treasuries, citing crowded short positions and improving inflation prints. He had warned last month that investors were underestimating the risk of a Fed July rate hike. Citadel’s simulations of CTAs and trend-followers show short positions are “substantially excessive” versus recent history, suggesting further declines would likely produce limited selling while sustained gains could force short covering. Flett says concerns about Fed credibility are overstated because recent soft jobs and inflation reports “appear to justify a more dovish policy response.”

道琼斯指数8月25日（周二）收盘上涨160.07点，涨幅0.30%，报53577.23点； 标普500指数8月25日（周二）收盘上涨24.36点，涨幅0.32%，报7677.22点； 纳斯达克综合指数8月25日（周二）收盘上涨171.11点，涨幅0.66%，报26151.30点。