市場消息：印度汽車行業協會（SIAM）表示，該文件系誤發給政府後已被撤回，原本僅供內部討論和審覈之用。

美國和伊朗於6月17日簽署14點諒解備忘錄，確立停火併設定60天期限談判永久結束戰爭。然而數週內，協議因衝突再度升級而出現裂痕。備忘錄雖宣佈停止敵對行動並開放霍爾木茲海峽供商船通行，但關鍵條款措辭模糊，雙方互相指責違約。主要爭議條款如下： 第5條（霍爾木茲海峽）：規定保障商業自由通行，但解釋存異。德黑蘭認爲該條款意味着美方承認伊朗對整條水道的管理權，且伊方僅同意免收通行費兩個月；美方則堅持文本僅要求伊朗確保安全通行，不得強制執行限制或徵稅。 第10條（石油與制裁豁免）：美方同意發放豁免，使伊朗能夠出口原油、石油產品及相關服務，包括國際銀行、保險和航運支持。 第11條（解凍金融資產）：美方承諾使伊朗被凍結資金和受限資產“完全可供使用”，具體機制將在談判中商定。 由於雙方未展開直接外交對話，且短期內無望就最終解決方案取得實質進展，該備忘錄於本週日到期後的前景仍充滿不確定性。

CITIC Securities says the US-Israel-Iran confrontation has been extended for more than five months. A reported Iran-Oman maritime transit agreement would not eliminate Strait transit risk; the deal functions primarily as an Iranian leverage tool and is unlikely to make meaningful progress because Iran’s hardline posture threatens Trump’s political legacy. Structural disputes over control of the strait make a long-term, stable management regime unlikely. Market-relevant watchpoints are whether the US formally grants sanctions exemptions, unfreezes assets, or alters maritime blockade measures. In the near term, even if a management arrangement and blockade relief are reached, shipping volumes may not rapidly or fully return to pre-conflict levels, sustaining upward pressure on global inflation while leaving extreme disruption risk contained. Over the longer term, the contest around the Strait of Hormuz signals a declining US capacity and willingness to uphold the existing global order, which will accelerate Middle East geopolitical realignment and prompt global supply-chain reconfiguration.