彭博全球長債指數收益率已升至約4.2%,創2008年7月以來最高。 該指數反映一籃子長期投資級債券的二級市場定價,並不等於各國政府全部債務立即按4.2%再融資。壓力在於“高利率持續多久”。OECD經濟體主權債務2025年已達61萬億美元,2026年融資需求預計升至18萬億美元;隨着低息舊債陸續到期,高收益率纔會逐步轉化爲更高付息成本,並通過“利息上升—赤字擴大—發債增加—期限溢價擡升”形成反饋。 目前國債拍賣仍能消化發行,債券及回購市場流動性總體正常,若後續出現拍賣持續尾部、交易商被迫大量承接或回購融資異常,才意味着壓力向真正的債市危機升級。

2026-08-18

彭博全球長債指數收益率已升至約4.2%,創2008年7月以來最高。 該指數反映一籃子長期投資級債券的二級市場定價,並不等於各國政府全部債務立即按4.2%再融資。壓力在於“高利率持續多久”。OECD經濟體主權債務2025年已達61萬億美元,2026年融資需求預計升至18萬億美元;隨着低息舊債陸續到期,高收益率纔會逐步轉化爲更高付息成本,並通過“利息上升—赤字擴大—發債增加—期限溢價擡升”形成反饋。 目前國債拍賣仍能消化發行,債券及回購市場流動性總體正常,若後續出現拍賣持續尾部、交易商被迫大量承接或回購融資異常,才意味着壓力向真正的債市危機升級。

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2026-08-17

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