The Bloomberg Global Long-Term Bond Index yield has risen to approximately 4.2%, its highest level since July 2008.
This index reflects the secondary market pricing of a basket of long-term investment-grade bonds and does not equate to an immediate refinancing of all government debt at 4.2%. The pressure lies in "how long high interest rates will last." OECD economies' sovereign debt has reached $61 trillion by 2025, and financing needs are projected to rise to $18 trillion in 2026. As low-interest old debt matures, high yields will gradually translate into higher interest costs, creating a feedback loop of "rising interest rates—widening deficits—increased bond issuance—rising term premiums."
Currently, government bond auctions are still able to absorb issuance, and liquidity in the bond and repurchase markets is generally normal. Only if subsequent auctions reach a prolonged tail end, dealers are forced to absorb large amounts of debt, or repurchase financing becomes abnormal, will it signify an escalation of pressure into a genuine bond market crisis.
