1. In the first half of the year, AI companies' profits were constrained, leading to a bottleneck where AI capital expenditure demand exceeded supply. From the second half onwards, the financing environment has become a new potential bottleneck.
2. Large technology companies are finding it increasingly difficult to cover their AI capital expenditures solely with their own cash flow, and their reliance on corporate bond financing is rising. Therefore, credit spreads may become a leading indicator for judging whether stock prices have peaked.
3. Historically, when capital expenditure and the credit cycle enter their later stages, the following pattern typically occurs: large-scale investment → increased debt → market concerns about debt repayment ability → widening corporate bond credit spreads → rising financing costs → slowing capital expenditure → declining profit expectations → stock price peaks.
4. Currently, the credit spreads of large technology companies are still near their lowest levels in nearly 20 years, and no obvious risk signals have yet emerged. Low debt ratios and stable core businesses are the reasons supporting the current stable spreads.
