In a report dated July 21, ING stated that new investment incentives are expected to support the long-term development of the US aluminum smelting industry, but the US market will still rely on imports in the short term, and the Midwest aluminum premium is expected to remain high.
Under the Trump administration's new policy, companies building, adding, or renovating US aluminum smelting capacity can apply to import eligible aluminum products at a 25% tariff rate, instead of the standard 50% rate, provided they meet approved investment milestones. However, the US primary aluminum supply has long suffered from a structural gap, and despite years of tariff protection, primary aluminum production has continued to decline. Currently, only four primary aluminum smelters remain operational in the US, leading to a high dependence on imported primary aluminum.
New capacity will still take several years to materialize. The more fundamental issue is that primary aluminum production is constrained by a stable and competitive electricity supply, not just trade policy.
While tariffs can help improve the economics of projects, new capacity still requires billions of dollars in investment, long-term power purchase agreements, environmental approvals, and a construction period of several years before the new output can truly enter the market. The fastest-progressing project in the US is the 750,000-ton-per-year primary aluminum smelter planned by Emirates Global Aluminum and Century Aluminum in Oklahoma, but it is not expected to bring any substantial new supply to the US market before 2030.
The fundamental reasons for the persistently high aluminum premium in the US Midwest remain high import tariffs, limited domestic capacity, and continued reliance on overseas supplies.
While the new incentive program is expected to improve the long-term prospects for domestic primary aluminum production in the US, it is unlikely to significantly reduce US dependence on imported aluminum or substantially lower procurement costs in the coming years. Overall, this policy should be viewed as a long-term industrial policy, rather than a short-term solution to the US primary aluminum supply shortage.
