荷蘭國際在7月21日的報告中表示，新的投資激勵措施有望在長期支持美國鋁冶煉行業發展，但美國市場短期內仍將依賴進口，預計中西部鋁升水將維持高位。 根據特朗普政府新政策，建設、新增或翻新美國鋁冶煉產能的企業，只要達到獲批的投資里程碑，即可申請按25%的關稅稅率進口符合條件的鋁產品，而非50%的標準稅率。但美國原鋁供應長期存在結構性缺口，儘管美國多年來持續實施關稅保護，但原鋁產量仍不斷下滑。目前，美國僅剩4家原鋁冶煉廠仍在運營，導致美國高度依賴進口原鋁。 新增產能仍需數年時間。更根本的問題在於，原鋁生產受制於穩定且具競爭力的電力供應，而不僅僅是貿易政策。 雖然關稅有助於改善項目經濟性，但新建產能仍需數十億美元投資、長期電力採購協議、環境審批以及數年的建設週期，新增產量才能真正進入市場。美國目前推進速度最快的項目是阿聯酋全球鋁業與Century Aluminum計劃在俄克拉何馬州建設、年產75萬噸的原鋁冶煉廠，但預計在2030年前也難以爲美國市場帶來具有實質意義的新增供應。 美國中西部鋁升水維持高位的根本原因仍在於高額進口關稅、國內產能有限以及持續依賴海外供應三大因素。 雖然新的激勵計劃有望改

Markets expect the ECB to hold in July, with most banks seeing September as the next likely tightening opportunity and policymakers retaining communication flexibility rather than explicit forward guidance. Commerzbank, Société Générale, ING, Daiwa, TD Securities, Danske and others forecast a July hold; ING and some banks warn a surprise hike cannot be ruled out but expect hawkish signalling, while statements will likely avoid preset paths. Deutsche Bank still models a second and final 25bp hike to 2.50% in September; Mitsubishi UFJ and Nordea see a September +25bp as the main scenario if energy prices rebound; Nuveen and Morgan Stanley flag energy/geopolitical-driven oil upside as the key risk that could reopen tightening. Reuters survey: all 74 economists expect a July hold, and 52 of 74 foresee an additional ECB hike in 2026; Franklin expects a final hike in September, then a pause with easing beginning in 2027.

A Korean shareholder-rights group has filed a criminal complaint accusing SK Hynix’s chief executive and Samsung Electronics’ vice chairman and chief executive of breaching fiduciary duties by agreeing profit-linked bonus arrangements with labour unions. The group lodged the complaint with police and separately reported the labour minister to the unit that investigates crimes by senior public officials, alleging he abused his authority by intervening in Samsung’s May pay talks. The group argues profit-linked performance bonuses are profit distributions that require shareholder approval and should not be settled through collective bargaining.