1. Memory contract prices are still rising, but the rate of increase has clearly peaked and is declining. The quarterly increase in traditional DRAM contract prices fell from 93%-98% in Q1 to 58%-63% in Q2, and TrendForce predicts it will further slow to 13%-18% in Q3. The spot market has stabilized, and data shows that both DRAM and HBM prices have begun to decline.
2. Long-term contracts provide a floor for sales volume and prices, but also limit suppliers from further price increases. This protection will gradually weaken within a year, therefore memory prices can only provide limited floor support and are unlikely to support a new round of significant upward revisions.
3. In 2026, HBM annual contract price increases will lag behind traditional DRAM. In Q1, HBM profitability was even lower than that of 64GB DDR5 RDIMM. In 2027, larger chip areas and wafer resource constraints theoretically benefit supplier bargaining power, but the number of supply participants is increasing: Changxin has begun sampling, and global traceable DRAM capacity is expected to reach approximately 2.1 million wafers per month by the end of 2026. TSMC has also entered the HBM4 substrate chip and packaging stage.
4. The market consensus is that storage companies' EPS will grow by 36%-40% in 2027, while market research firm TrendForce predicts that unit supply will only increase by 15%-20%, indicating that current expectations are already quite aggressive. Samsung and SK Hynix's current stock prices have largely reflected a scenario where 2027 earnings are 40%-50% lower than the consensus forecast, and their valuations are close to reasonable, but this does not mean that cyclical risks have completely disappeared. (Source: Independent research firm TS Lombard)
