Microsoft will release its earnings report after the US market closes tonight. Deutsche Bank maintains its "Buy" rating on Microsoft with a target price of $550. Due to AI investments, the gross margin is expected to narrow by 2.4 percentage points year-over-year to 66.2%, but strict cost control will keep the operating profit margin resilient at 44.0%.
Deutsche Bank believes Microsoft's forward P/E ratio of 20 is already very attractive and expects earnings per share (EPS) to maintain mid-double-digit growth over the next few years. Market concerns about the following points have exceeded reasonable levels:
1. Despite the impact of rising memory prices, Deutsche Bank has raised its fiscal year 2027 capital expenditure forecast to $238 billion, emphasizing that about two-thirds of the investment is in revenue-generating assets, and that strong pricing and cost control in AI infrastructure can offset gross margin pressures.
2. Regarding the risk of over-reliance on OpenAI, Deutsche Bank believes that OpenAI's contract with Microsoft has a long term. Looking at the next 24 months, OpenAI's actual share of the backlog is about 25%-30%, significantly lower than the market's perception of 45%.
3. On the business front, revenue for the first fiscal quarter of 2027 is projected to reach $89.6 billion, with growth accelerating to 15.5%. Azure is expected to grow by 40-41%, with current growth primarily constrained by supply (computing capacity) rather than demand. M365 is driven by Copilot adoption, the migration from E3 to E5, and the new E7 plan, resulting in continued growth in ARPU (average revenue per user).
Overall, while the personal computing (MPC) segment is slightly weak, Microsoft is on an ideal trajectory of sustained compound profit growth through full-stack AI monetization and rigorous operational cost management.
