Ira Joseph of Columbia University's Center for Global Energy Policy believes that Asian LNG imports declined significantly in March and April after the Hormuz scare, but recovered rapidly from May onwards, reaching approximately 1040 million cubic meters per day in July and August, essentially entering the normal summer purchasing range. With the arrival of summer, Asia has regained its attraction for flexible supplies, with the average premium of JKM relative to European TTF around $2.1/MMBtu from March to June.
More importantly, high prices have not yet prevented rigid buyers such as Japan and South Korea from replenishing their stocks. The average price of Asian JKM in July was around $19.1/MMBtu, and it was still around $21.12 on August 7th. Since Qatar's traditional long-term contracts are typically around 12.6%-12.7% of Brent crude, some spot prices are already significantly higher than oil-price-linked long-term contracts.
This indicates that the marginal price tolerance of Asian demand is stronger than the market expected at the beginning of the year.
As of early August, the EU's gas storage rate was less than 58%, a historical low for the same period; while the spot curve still shows a near-month premium, making gas storage economics very poor. If Europe is to bring ships back from Asia for the remainder of the gas injection season, it needs to push its TTF/NWE to a level sufficient to cover Asian premiums and freight rates. The real risk now is that once Asian purchases resume, Europe's winter safety stock may have to rely on higher gas prices to compete for it.
