JPMorgan Chase, citing WSTS data, points out that global semiconductor revenue grew by approximately 134% year-on-year in June, but overall shipments only increased by about 8% during the same period. This indicates that the main driver of this boom is not simply "selling more," but rather a significant improvement in prices and product mix.
The memory market showed an even more extreme performance: revenue grew by approximately 369% year-on-year, shipments increased by approximately 44%, while ASP (Average Selling Price) rose by approximately 225% year-on-year.
This means that the current profitability elasticity of the memory cycle largely stems from tight supply, the increased proportion of high-value products such as HBM (Hardware-Based Product) components, and enhanced bargaining power among manufacturers.
Therefore, this round of semiconductor boom differs from traditional cycles that solely rely on the recovery of end-user shipments. Revenue and profits can expand rapidly during periods of moderate sales growth, but conversely, this also means that once supply and demand tensions ease, changes in ASP may become a key indicator for judging the turning point of the cycle even earlier than shipment volume.
