According to the latest shipping monitoring data released by Kpler, the confirmed vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz rebounded to 13 vessels on August 13, a 44% increase from the 9 vessels of the previous day. Regarding route selection, 9 vessels used the Iranian Unilateral Scheme, none confirmed using the Hormuz Separation Scheme (TSS), and 4 routes remain undetermined. In contrast, traffic through the Bab el Mandeb Strait remained stable, with 29 confirmed transits recorded on August 13, a slight increase of 4% compared to the previous day. Of these, 18 entered the Red Sea and 11 exited, with 2 dark transits recorded. No new confirmed vessel attacks were reported that day.
Although the daily traffic through the Strait of Hormuz saw a significant percentage rebound, the absolute number of 13 transits remains at a historically low level (compared to 16 on August 11 and 9 on August 12). This indicates that shipowners and operators remain extremely cautious in assessing passage through this crucial energy choke point amid the looming threat of potential geopolitical conflict. The majority of vessels are choosing to bypass the conventional TSS (Transport Service Separation System) and instead adopt Iran's unilateral approach, highlighting a subtle shift in the compliance and security risk structure for passage in the region.
Fluctuations in daily transit volume cannot be directly extrapolated to a reduction in geopolitical blockade risks. Given the still relatively small absolute transit volume, the shipping market's pricing of the supply chain vulnerability of the Hormuz and Red Sea choke points has not fundamentally changed, and long-term logistics costs and premiums will remain highly sensitive to subsequent security disruptions.
