A report by shipping intelligence firm Kpler points out that the Iran-Iraq War left two overlapping problems in the Gulf, and the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) only addressed one. The first is the issue of stranded vessels: idle floating crude oil storage, meaning tankers already loaded with crude oil but remaining at sea or near ports for a week or more. The scale of such stranded crude oil peaked at approximately 104 million barrels at the end of April; at the time the MOU was signed, there were still approximately 61 million barrels. Within three weeks of the ceasefire, this scale rapidly decreased to approximately 16 million barrels, reflecting the clearing of the backlog as reflected in the earlier strong data. The second problem is the oil flow itself, a problem that has never been truly resolved. At the time the MOU was signed, the total amount of crude oil at sea in the Middle East Gulf and the Gulf of Oman was approximately 165 million barrels, which decreased to approximately 107 million barrels by July 7, and then stopped declining. At the end of the 60-day window, the oil inventory was approximately 130 million barrels, bringing the total offshore crude oil level back to about 130 million barrels. Although it fell back to about 110 million barrels by August 18, it was still higher than the approximately 96 million barrels at the start of the war. In other words, the stranded ships were released, but the transportation system problems that caused these ships to be stranded remained. And in the final week of the agreement's implementation, offshore crude oil inventories had even begun to accumulate again.
