Robert Malley, who spearheaded the historic 2015 nuclear agreement negotiations between the US and Iran and served as the US Special Envoy for Iran, stated that four questions need to be answered regarding the so-called "D-Day sanctions," one of which is more fundamental: destroying a country and achieving a clear policy objective are two entirely different things.
1. Does the US government know what will happen next?
They don't. These sanctions are both hostile and vague. Most notably, Bessant stated that if these sanctions are implemented immediately and fully, they will impact and even destroy the global financial system.
But the question is, if the Trump administration is unwilling to act now, what makes it seem like they will be willing to act at some point in the future? And if the US doesn't intend to fully implement the sanctions, what will happen when third parties refuse to cooperate?
2. Will this plan work?
Leaving aside a more fundamental question—the US government hasn't even clearly stated what it wants to achieve—the success of this plan depends on how "effective" is defined. Can increased pressure destroy the Iranian economy and inflict immense suffering on its people? Absolutely. The government is expected to regularly release data on economic contraction and currency collapse to demonstrate its success. However, if "work" means forcing the Iranian leadership to abandon positions they consider crucial, the answer is almost certainly "no."
In fact, the more convinced Iran is that the US goal is to overthrow the Iranian regime, the less willing it is to submit to the US.
3. What would happen if the sanctions did "work"?
If the sanctions "work," meaning they truly cause the Iranian economy to collapse, then Iran is more likely to choose retaliation than surrender.
Because Iran needs to ensure that the US, the entire Middle East, and even the world pay a heavy price for this economic war. This, in turn, could lead to the military escalation that D-Day sanctions were trying to avoid.
4. Regardless of the outcome, can such severe sanctions truly be justified?
Undoubtedly, some members of the Iranian leadership will pay the price for these sanctions, but the real primary victims will be ordinary Iranians. Their suffering has become the main criterion for measuring the policy's "success." And these ordinary people are becoming the target of an unacceptable, indiscriminate, and almost certainly illegal sanctions system.
