Since August, commodity ETFs have seen net inflows of approximately $15 billion, marking the second-highest monthly inflow in the past year, second only to the previous peak, and the largest inflow since February. Of this, precious metals ETFs contributed about $14 billion, meaning approximately 93% of the new commodity funds are concentrated in precious metals. GLD alone saw inflows of about $2.3 billion last week.
Notably, there are signs of funds spreading to materials stocks: the MSCI China Materials Index has been one of the best-performing sectors in the Chinese market over the past month, rising approximately 15%. The index's 12-month forward PE ratio is approximately 9.6, lower than the MSCI China Index's approximately 10.5; year-to-date earnings forecasts have been revised upwards by 38%, far exceeding the broader market's 4%, with projected earnings growth of 54% over the next 12 months.
The next stage requires observation of whether funds continue to spread from gold miners to previously sluggish sectors such as copper, lithium, and uranium. The report has already observed double-digit gains in some smaller resource stocks despite a lack of company news, indicating that this spread of trading is beginning to emerge. (The above views are from a JPMorgan report dated August 25th.)
