1. First Possibility: Continuing to Use Article 49.3 of the Constitution
This has been the most common solution in France in recent years. Article 49.3 of the French Constitution allows the government to pass bills without a parliamentary vote. However, the opposition can subsequently propose a motion of no confidence. If the motion passes, the government falls. Therefore, the government effectively needs to find a balance between deficit reduction and gaining opposition support. The problem this year is that with the general election approaching, parties may be less willing to compromise than in the past. Therefore, while Article 49.3 is a tool, its use is becoming increasingly costly.
2. Second Possibility: Automatic Extension of the 2026 Budget
If the budget still cannot be passed by the end of the year, and the government does not use Article 49.3, it can pass a temporary rolling bill: temporarily extending the 2026 budget. This sounds like it can avoid a government shutdown, but the problem is very serious. Because fiscal policy in 2027 cannot be implemented normally: investment is frozen + the planned increase in defense spending is frozen + welfare spending continues to grow, which may lead to a further increase in the fiscal deficit. The French Ministry of Finance warns that this could lead to an increase in the deficit of at least 0.5 percentage points. Simultaneously: declining investor confidence – rising French bond yields – increased government financing costs – further deterioration of the fiscal situation. This is a typical negative fiscal feedback loop.
3. The third possibility: bypassing parliament and formulating the budget directly through executive order.
This is the most extreme option. If the government fails to pass a budget by mid-December, it may attempt to formulate the budget directly through executive order. This has never been used in the history of the Fifth Republic of France. Therefore, the media directly calls it a "nuclear option." The reason is that the opposition party will almost certainly propose a motion of no confidence.
