JPMorgan Chase, citing internal consumption data, pointed out that as of August 20, US monthly consumption increased by 5.4% year-on-year, higher than July's 4.4%; among which, discretionary consumption growth further increased from 4.4% in July to 5.8%, indicating that high interest rates and the pressure of the cost of living have not yet prevented overall consumption from continuing to grow.
However, the gap between different income groups remains significant. In August, consumption by high-income groups increased by 6.9% year-on-year, by middle-income groups by 7.3%, and by low-income groups by only 4.8%. While the growth rates of all three groups improved compared to July, low-income consumers still lagged significantly behind, indicating that while overall US consumption remains strong, the degree of internal pressure is uneven.
For the market, this structure is conducive to maintaining short-term growth and corporate profitability resilience, but the continued lag of low-income groups also indicates that the pressure of high prices and financing costs is still accumulating. If employment or wages weaken further in the future, consumption pressure is more likely to expand first from low-income groups, at which point the resilience of overall consumption data will face a more significant test.
