Following the resumption of hostilities in September, the US military struck several oil tankers linked to Iran: on September 5, Downy, Stark I, and Kylo were attacked; on September 8, the US military struck Kaviz, Charminar, Horizon I, Riesco, and Derya near Kharg Island, Iran's main crude oil export hub, in the Gulf of Oman.
Iran subsequently targeted unauthorized oil tankers and US warships for retaliation, signifying that the risk in the Strait of Hormuz has escalated from a game of mine laying, blockade, and escort to direct attacks on each other's shipping assets, with commercial vessels becoming tools for exerting economic pressure.
This change has already impacted actual passage. Kpler data shows that the ten-day average passage of commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to 10 vessels per day, the lowest since May; on one day, only two ships passed through, and for several consecutive days, no VLCCs left.
Therefore, oil prices approaching $100 reflect not only a decrease in Iranian exports, but also the potential for shipowners to seek safer routes, rising insurance costs, and an expanded scope of retaliation to continue compressing available shipping capacity throughout the Gulf region.
