Analyst Tyler Durden stated that, according to a copy of Anthropic's IPO prospectus disclosed by Reuters, the company is projected to incur a net loss of $42 billion in 2025. Despite a 12-fold increase in revenue to nearly $4.6 billion in 2025, the company's operating loss exceeds $8 billion, with computing power expenditures soaring to $7.33 billion, accounting for 58% of its total operating expenses of $12.65 billion.
In other words, for every $1 of revenue Anthropic earns, it loses nearly $2, and this trend is accelerating.
Worse still, Anthropic stated that nearly a quarter of its revenue last year came from only two customers and warned in its risk factors section that many of its largest customers have not secured long-term contracts and may cut or halt spending. Furthermore, according to the prospectus, Anthropic plans to spend $518 billion on cloud, computing, and infrastructure obligations in the coming year, while Anthropic only has $20.3 billion in cash as of December 31, 2025. Therefore, suddenly, its funding sources appear exceptionally depleted, making fundraising extremely urgent. Anthropic's timing for its IPO was utterly terrible. Token costs had plummeted to historic lows, while demand for frontier tokens slowed significantly for the first time. Furthermore, Anthropic stated that its increasingly autonomous AI models could act in unexpected and potentially harmful ways, including breaking code in controlled testing, aiding fraud, and manipulating information. OpenAI consequently announced it was abandoning the release of its latest AI model, GPT-6.1 Astra.
How can any company, especially one that has offended the Trump administration for much of the past year, expect to go public with a valuation exceeding $2 trillion? The answer is no, which is why we are now seeing them testing the waters, paving the way for their first and subsequent IPO postponements.
Meanwhile, cash continues to burn, and one day, either existing investors will have to inject more "good money" to chase "bad money," or Anthropic's CEO will have to push through the IPO at the risk of a catastrophic stock price collapse.
