Over the past 35 years, the main sources of the US trade deficit have shifted three times: from oil, to machinery and transportation equipment, and then to semiconductors and AI hardware. In Q2 of this year, the annualized trade deficit in semiconductors and AI hardware reached $546 billion, more than double that of the same period last year, exceeding the $451 billion deficit in machinery and transportation equipment during the same period, and also surpassing the peak oil deficit of $414 billion in 2008. Since 2020, the deficit in these products has increased more than ninefold. This change is mainly due to the surge in imports of chips, servers, and other equipment driven by the construction of AI data centers. In the first seven months of 2026, US imports of these products will reach $429 billion, while exports will only reach $132 billion.
The US oil deficit peaked in 2008, followed by a surge in production driven by the shale oil revolution. In 2020, the US achieved net exports of petroleum products for the entire year, the first time since the EIA began recording such data in 1949. By 2024, the oil trade deficit will have disappeared from the charts. The deficit in machinery and transportation equipment is projected to peak at $575 billion by the end of 2024.
However, considering economic scale, the current deficit in semiconductor and AI hardware, at 1.7% of GDP, is still lower than the peak of 2.8% in the oil deficit in 2008.
