A working paper published in October by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) analyzed the paid and competitive landscape of AI services using credit and debit card data covering 174 million consumers and 114 billion transactions. The study shows that as of April 2026, only about 2.9% of U.S. consumers will pay for at least one mainstream generative AI service, and almost all paying users will choose basic plans with a monthly fee of $30 or less. The annual customer retention rate for major AI services is approximately 20%–45%, lower than many other subscription services; user switching also increases around the time of major model releases. The research team's structural model further shows that consumers are highly price-sensitive, with a significantly stronger preference for the AI technology itself than for specific vendors, and services are becoming increasingly similar substitutes. The study argues that if the differences in model quality do not significantly widen, competition will limit vendors' ability to raise prices, and consumers are expected to receive a larger proportion of the value from AI services.
